Land use strategies for sustainable rural development under revenue uncertainty: A case from Indonesia

We investigated the economic attractiveness of different land uses and possible payments
for carbon in rubber monoculture and agroforest, and biodiversity in agroforest under revenue
uncertainty in Jambi, Indonesia. A multi-period programming with Monte Carlo simulation
and Brownian motion were used. Findings showed that farm incomes would substantially
vary, and to mitigate uncertainty the farmland would be diversified. Further increase in
carbon prices would result in enhancing the area of rubber monoculture and would lead to
possible trade-off in agrobiodiversity. When the payments for ecosystem services are targeted
for agroforest then its returns would increase and reduce farm income variability