Which forecast represents the local weather best? Preliminary case study findings from My Loi village, northcentral Vietnam

In Vietnam forecasts are produced at the national level for eight major regions. The approaches to downscale the regional forecasts vary by province. For example, in Ha Tinh province the seasonal forecast (for threemonths) are derived as an average based on all meteorological stations in the province with an ENSO index, followed up with 10-day-forecasts updated every 5 days.
Farmers in My Loi village typically get weather forecast information through television, the village loudspeakers, and to a lesser extent, the agriculture extension service. Currently, as forecast information is at best given at the province level, farmers consider the forecasts to be unreliable (CARE and ICRAF 2016). Referring to signs in nature during spring 2016, they were also sure that the El Niño drought would end by autumn. Others said these signs were becoming more difficult to interpret,as the weather is becoming more variable.